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Corporate Stress Barometer

A structured diagnostic aid for identifying early corporate stress signals

Select Indicators

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Absence of 13‑week (3–6 month) short‑term cash flow forecast.

Absence of long‑term integrated cash flow model.

Covenant breach (actual or forecast) or payment default on bonds/loans.

Credit rating downgrade or loss of market access.

Crisis management, turnaround or restructuring already on the board agenda.

Deteriorating employee morale or key talent exits, if visible.

Deteriorating payables profile (stretching suppliers, more disputes, COD terms).

EBIT / interest expense < 2 on a sustained basis.

EBITDA margin deterioration or negative EBITDA versus budget / prior year.

Fragmented lender base (e.g. >5 banks / mixed lenders with misaligned interests).

High reliance on short‑term funding relative to asset/liability profile.

Implied risk to going concern, irrespective of current audit opinion.

Increase in bad‑debt provisions versus history and policy.

Increase in trade receivable days and/or inventory days above historical averages.

Lawsuits or aggressive collection actions from trade creditors.

Loss‑making or structurally unprofitable business units / subsidiaries.

Negative operating cash flow and negative EBITDA over several periods.

Net debt / EBITDA materially above industry norms.

Persistent sales revenue decline versus budget / prior year over several periods.

Recent unplanned changes in top management (CEO, CFO or key COO).

Recurrent short‑term cash gaps expected (weekly/monthly deficits, dependence on emergency measures).

Significant refinancing wall within 12–24 months with limited realistic options.

Systematic underperformance versus budget on other key KPIs (volumes, yields, costs).

Tense relationships with major stakeholders (banks, between shareholders, key suppliers).

Weak or under‑resourced finance function (late / poor‑quality reporting, lack of scenario analysis).

Recommended Measures

Financial restructuring measures

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Operational restructuring measures

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Portfolio restructuring measures

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Managerial restructuring measures

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